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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/18 10:54

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower at midday led by soybeans.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 200. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 15 higher. Energies are 
mixed with crude down 0.20. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are 
mixed with gold up 2.60. 


   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower with trade grinding along support with 
upside momentum slowing with harvest pressure returning to the market along 
with spillover trade from the outside markets. The harvest pace should begin to 
build again the next few days with the more open weather expected to persist 
into next week. Ethanol margins are under pressure again with the energy 
complex retreating and stocks continuing to build and futures testing the $1.25 
area. Corn basis should start to see renewed pressure with better harvest pace. 
The weekly export sales were disappointing at 382,500 metric tons. On the 
December chart support is at the 100-day at $3.71 which we are just below at 
midday then the 20-day at $3.67, resistance is at the $3.78 1/2 
September-October high reached on Monday. 


   Soybean trade is 15 to 17 cents lower with harvest pressure and outside 
market concerns encouraging liquidation this morning. Meal is $5 to $6 lower 
and oil is 30 to 40 points lower. Soybean basis will likely see pressure again 
later in the week as farmers get back into the fields. Crop losses from the 
weather will likely take a while for trade to sort out, which will likely 
trigger volatile trade at times. Crush margins remain strong in the near term. 
South America should continue to see fairly normal early season progress in the 
near term with good moisture with the biggest concerns in Argentina. The weekly 
export sales were weak with 293,600 metric tons of beans, 104,100 of meal, and 
26,600 of oil. On the November chart support is the 10-day at $8.71, which we 
are testing at midday with the 20-day at $8.62 below that, with major 
resistance the 100-day at $8.85 3/4 and minor resistance at the recent high at 


   Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower with trade following the row crops lower 
after some early buying. The U.S. dollar has jumped back above 95 with more 
flight-to-safety trade. Winter wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions 
in North America than Europe with plenty of moisture on the plains. Australia 
remains in the recent weather pattern with some relief in the drier areas. 
MATIF milling wheat is flat to lower. Jordan secured Black Sea origin wheat on 
their tender, but the U.S. is getting more competitive. The weekly export sales 
are improved at 476,000 metric tons. On the December Kansas City chart, we are 
below at the 10-day and 20-day at 5.21 with the lower Bollinger Band support at 
5.10. Resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at $5.32.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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