DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/17 11:44
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans are firmer at midday, corn mixed, and wheat weaker.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures up 160. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 30 higher. Energies are
weaker with crude down 1.90. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are
weaker with gold down 1.30.
Corn trade is mixed in quiet midday trade with the December contract holding
support. The harvest pace should begin to build again the next few days with
the more open weather and some sunshine drying out some fields. The weekly
ethanol report is expected to showed production down 29,000 barrels, and stocks
up 109,000 barrels. The export market has been quieter in recent days on the
daily wire. Corn basis should start to see renewed pressure with better harvest
pace. The weakness in crude and some dollar strength is expected to limit
upside the remainder of the day. On the December chart support is at the 10-day
at $3.70 then the 20-day at $3.66, resistance is at the $3.78 1/2
September-October high reached on Monday.
Soybean trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade remaining in the
upper end of the range with light noted chart buying. Market bears argue the
strength should cease with renewed harvest pressure with quality concerns
likely to linger. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and bean oil is flat here at midday.
Soybean basis will likely see pressure again later in the week as farmers get
back into the fields. Crop losses from the weather will likely take a while for
trade to sort out which will likely trigger volatile trade, especially with
overbought conditions. Crush margins remain strong in the near term. South
America should continue to see fairly normal early season progress in the near
term with good moisture with the biggest concerns in Argentina. On the November
chart support is the 10-day at $8.69, with major resistance the 100-day at
$9.01 and minor resistance at the recent high at $8.92.
Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents lower with trade sliding back to the lower end
of the recent range with spread trade continuing to limit wheat upside along
with the stronger dollar and continued Russian export dominance. The US dollar
has jumped back above 95 with some midweek buying. Winter wheat planting is
ongoing with better conditions in North America than Europe with plenty of
moisture on the plains. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with
some relief in the drier areas. MATIF milling wheat is flat to lower this AM.
Jordan secured Black Sea origin wheat on their tender, but the US is getting
more competitive. On the December Kansas City chart, we are just above at the
10-day and 20-day at 5.21 with the lower Bollinger Band support at 5.09.
Resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at $5.32.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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